Resetting expectations?

I hate to admit it, but the start of the Eurovision Song Contest has inspired this post. Apologies to everyone who likes taste and decency!

Stoke
So, Manchester City break their 35 year drought. The favourites edged past a Stoke side who demolished Bolton in the semi-finals, in surely one of the most one-sided games seen at Wembley.

Stoke should be pleased to have reached the final but this isn't meant as an insult. Tony Pulis's side has constantly defied expectations and quietly established themselves as a useful addition to the Premier League. How often are they mentioned as candidates for relegation? They are a physical side, but the have some deftness to their play with Etherington, and the nomadic Pennant.

I was pleased to see so many fans in the stadium during the trophy presentation. Yes, cries of "Delilah" rang out as the City players climbed the Wembley steps (certainly not staying for the £8.50 fish and chips....?!), but clearly the Stoke fans were pleased to be at Wembley for a proper final . The only disappointment was that they were overrun in midfield and fielding a number of unfit players (Huth and Etherington, at a minimum).

However, Stoke will be embarking on a European campaign in 2012/3, along with Birmingham; - how nice it is to see different teams making it into Europe from domestic Cup finals! There is no need to fear about England's UEFA coefficient, given the certainty of at least 2 or 3 English sides making the CL quarter finals, a guaranteed return with the money flowing through Sir Dave Richard's Premier League behemoth.

If both get through to the Europa League group stage, however, it is an established route to struggling in the league. For Stoke, I expect some mild evolution over the summer, perhaps replacing Carew and bolstering the midfield if cash is made available. If it was me, I'd be pushing a cheque under Mike Ashley's nose for Tiote.

City
Ah, Manchester City. It seems that the investment from the Middle East meant that Chelsea is now the acceptable face of "sugar daddy" ownership for football clubs in England.

For most people City were expected to challenge at the top end of the table almost immediately following the takeover from Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan. That was very unrealistic. Before today, they had not won anything for a very long time. What Arsenal continue to demonstrate is how a brittle spine and weak mentality can provide a "monkey on your back" when it comes to the key moments in big games. Today's result will push them forward, and guaranteed CL football will finally attract those players who weren't entirely tempted by the money (Kaka, I'm talking about you).

As an external observer, Manchester City should only build in size and confidence over the next few seasons, competing strongly with United and Chelsea sides in transition in 2012/3. If they want to challenge for the league and Champions League next season, Mancini needs to amend his mindset in the big, big games (too many years of hearing Jamie Redknapp!). They were victorious against United, Spurs and Stoke all by the margin of one goal to nil. I'm not sure I've seen them chase a game though, and will be a very important test when sides from around Europe "park the bus" at Eastlands.

Most neutrals will expect a strong CL run and a title challenge next year. Nothing will reset the majority's expectations of the club.Today's result will probably increase investment, but I predict that many City fans would be happy with being closer to United next season and re-appearance in the CL. 

It is difficult to pick out obvious areas of improvement in their squad. Hart, Silva, Tevez and now probably Toure would get into nearly every side in the Premier League (wages discounted!). They have many 'good' players though, the likes of Boateng, Barry, Milner, Balotelli; that's before we get anywhere near Jo, Adebayor and Wayne Bridge! I'm sure a number of players will be lured to Eastlands, but today's result and proof that the side are trophy winners is probably as large a draw as the Champions League football offered.

I'll post tomorrow on the relegation battle, following the crucial Wigan v West Ham game.
PS - has there been a harder shot to win a Cup final?


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