"And now, the end is here. And so I face the final curtain." My Way, Frank Sinatra.
The television executives have what they want: a final day decider. It isn't quite the Premier League title shoot out of 1995 (Andy Cole vs Ludek Miklosko), but Survival Sunday will be foisted onto our screens on Sunday at 4pm.
According to the hyperbole, this is a £30m, £60m, £90m game. Who knows what the actual economic impact will be on each of the clubs - it isn't just television money but gate receipts, money-spinning tours and merchandise that are factored into these unproven figures - but ultimately each of the five teams fighting to stay up will experience a different level of fall-out from a relegation to the Championship. So here is how it stands (in reverse order, just to be different):
19th: Wigan: 39 points; -22 goal difference; v Stoke away
18th: Blackpool: 39; -21; v Man Utd away
17th: Birmingham: 39; -20; v Spurs away
16th: Wolves: 40; -19; v Blackburn home
15th: Blackburn: 40; -14; v Wolves away
Blackburn
I really don't know what to make about the owners of Blackburn. In the Premier League era, arguably they have had three phases:
1) The emergence under Jack Walker, resulting in their title victory & European adventure (+ fighting);
2) The enterprising side as built by Mark Hughes in 2003;
3) The Sam Allardyce solid unit of the past few years.
Why was Sam dismissed? To remove a manager whose penchant for effective and not entertaining sides seems now like a folly. Steve Keen, a man who has followed Chris Coleman's generally ineffectual management odyssey as his assistant, was a very surprising choice. He won't bring in investment, but perhaps he is more of a 'yes' man who is keen (apologies for the pun) to do what the owners want.
I think they will survive; there are enough Premier League quality players to justify their inclusion for another year, such as Christopher Samba. They were also only a penalty away from a tactically astute win against the champions last week, so logic states that they won't end up in the bottom three by Sunday night.
If they did, I'm not sure where the owners would go next.
Wolves
In whose shoes would I want to be in? Ultimately Wolves. Their win at Sunderland, an impressive triumph for Mick McCarthy at a ground where he suffered so much in a previous guise, has put them as favourites to stay up. Even if Blackburn come away from Molineux with a win, the probability of two of Wigan, Blackpool and Wigan leaping above them is slender, unless win by a few goals.
Mick McCarthy has built an interesting side. Slowly he has added a series of grafters and under-rated players, and they are starting to mature into a unit who could start to establish themselves in the Premier League, albeit in the bottom half. If they got relegated, I really would imagine limited impact. Steve Morgan is a patient man, and I'm sure he'd allow Mick to re-build and bring Wolves back up next year.
Birmingham
Carling Cup winners. Relegation candidates.
Europa League. Barnsley away.
There is something very strange about the way Birmingham's season has unwound. Stories of goalkeepers drinking until the early hours and premature celebrations suggest that their victory over Arsenal was the end of their season.
It is astonishing that they are in this position. A few years ago Birmingham were a decent side, finishing in the top half of the league, and with new investment coming, looking like they would cement their place in the top flight. However, I really think that Sunday will be the end of the road.
Their performance at the weekend made them look like a beaten side, settling for a home defeat 2-0 against Fulham. This is a Fulham side who have won three away games, which must be a recent record for them! Spurs typically struggle against sides such as Birmingham, but I feel that they will have too much on Sunday.
I think McLeish will be removed from his position, and it will be a period of culling the higher wage earners and building round some of the lesser players (McFadden, Johnson etc) in 2011/2.
Blackpool
Blackpool. What a breath of fresh air, regardless of whether you are a fan of Ian Holloway or not. They have possibly ten points more than I thought they could muster, but the fixture list has not worked in their favour.
Several seasons ago West Ham went to Old Trafford needing a point to stay up. They won 1-0. This year Blackpool are going to Old Trafford needing at least a point to stay up. However, given the number of warnings that Ferguson has had this year from the Football Association, they won't field a weakened side. Their players will not want to warm up for Barcelona (well technically Juventus at home in a friendly in midweek...) with a defeat, and will want to force themselves into the match day squad.
Blackpool will go for it, lose, be relegated, keep Holloway, build, and finish in the top eight in the Championship next year.
Wigan
I really respect Roberto Martinez. He's a guy who seems to be professional and thoroughly knowledgeable. I fancy them to get a result at the Britannia, buoyed by their defeat of West Ham, and stay up.
Given the number of good players that they've introduced to the Premier League (Baines, Valencia, Chimbonda, Palacios) who have gone onto bigger and better things, despite their small crowds, I think there is a place for them in the Premier League.
If they went down, I'd fancy them to come straight back up, as long as they held onto their manager.
So my prediction? That's for Birmingham and Blackpool to join West Ham in the Championship.
An overall net gain - Birmingham add nothing, West Ham are incredibly erratic but Blackpool have been very entertaining. However, I'd far rather see QPR and Norwich, both of whom are quality footballing teams, in the Premier League (even if for only one season).
cp
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